Saturday, March 01, 2008

Prediction for the Democratic Primary

If I haven't said it already, it's going to be Barack Obama. Hillary is suffering from Rudy syndrome. Rudy was leading nationally, the large states, and the swing states. The only states he was behind in were the early states. He figured they wouldn't matter. He figured wrong.

You can't lose 6 states in a row and think that it won't have an impact on your campaign. I don't get the psychology, but that is precisely why states don't want to go last.

Hillary hasn't lost 6 in a row. She's lost 11 in a row. Obviously that has had an effect. Add that to the fact that the more people hear Obama, the more they like him. The more they hear Hillary, the less they like her. Since Iowa, she always starts with big leads, then loses those leads at the election.

Texas will be no different. Her last debate showed her whining about getting the first question, her negative ads are turning Democrats off (the phone call ad smacks of GOP ridiculousness), and worst of all, she is actually threatning to sue the Texas Democratic Party over their primary/caucus system. The VoteMaster from thinks she is bluffing, since suing them would "complicate the election, lose the nomination, come off as a whiny sore loser, shred her repeutation, and end any chance she could be the nominee in 2012 if McCain wins in 2008." But this begs the question: Why is she doing it at all? Texas is not going to change their system days before the election--especially since Hillary had no problem until now--with all polls showing her narrowly losing Texas.

Barack has grown in popularity and has handled the attacks from McCain and Bush with class. I personally can't believe Bush had the gall to say anything to Obama on Iraq. He just invites people to poke fun at him for his tremendous incompetence that unleashed this disaster to begin with. Note to W: worry about running the country and less about running McCain's campaign. The best thing you can do for McCain is NOT try to help. On second thought, go campaign with him. :)

Barack Obama will win Texas and barely will win Ohio. Once that happens, Hillary will move to Mike Huckabee status and continue to lose states, including PA in April. I predict that she will drop out at that point and that we will not be subjected to a brokered convention.

One year ago I predicted McCain would win the GOP primary, let's see if I'm right on my predictions for the Dem primary.

1 comment :

  1. McCain: In bed with lobbyists. Literally.