Monday, March 19, 2007

Bets on the GOP Primary

Step right up. It’s time to play the "Who’s Left Standing" or "Who's Gonna Self Destruct the Least" and win the GOP Primary. Yes, I know it’s early—that’s why it’s fun to show off a little. Six months from now we will have a pretty clear idea—and a year from now it will be over. Let’s test those analytical/crystal ball skills of yours.

I don’t mean to brag, but I have picked the nominee for the GOP correctly 100% of the time since 1988. I also have the same track record for the Dems – I have always picked the WRONG one. But the GOP is much more predictable, and this time I can finally put my MOJO where my mouth is. If you follow the money, the support structure, and most importantly, get into the mind of the GOP primary voter—you can figure it out barring any last minute scandal. Here is my analysis of the contenders, who will ultimately win, and why.

Mitt Romney: NO DICE. My last poll showed a lot of you are leaning towards Romney. Originally a moderate who ran a deep blue state, but low and behold, all of the sudden he "found Jesus" (not the real one, the GOP version with the political platform who preaches intolerance and tax cuts). Lucky for Mitt, he found this Jesus right before courting conservatives for the GOP primary—whew! Close one. Now all of the sudden, he is rabidly anti-gay, strongly pro-life (and has always been, dammit), and embraces Ann Coulter.

Conservatives hate a flip-flop, but they they may figure he’s the best shot for them out of all the frontrunners. Guiliani isn’t one of them, and they just hate that McCain. However, hating people is what religious fundamentalists do best, and Mitt has something that religious conservatives love to hate—a different religion. It wasn’t that many years ago I was watching Pat Robertson rant on his 700 Club that Mormonism was "just plain wrong". The Baptist Church I used to go to here in Seminole (I switched fast) had a bible study that somehow turned into a sermon on the "abomination" of Christianity: ("Do you know what they believe???") The right-wing is pretty solidly behind Romney right now, though, as evidenced by wacko Hewitt’s latest book, A Mormon in the White House, where he tries to "justify" the "Mormon problem" and goes on to smear McCain.

But there are too many negatives. His fundraising isn’t close to the other two titans, and he hasn’t been in any leads except for a straw poll (that he really should have skipped---tying him to Raggedy Ann didn’t boast him that much with conservatives, but it was probably the kiss of death for any broader appeal along with his sudden hard-right turn). I doubt that even the state he goverened would go for him, and I predict that it won’t happen for Mitt.

John McCain: DICE. He’ll probably win. The GOP believes in the establishment candidate. His appeal in 2000 was that he was the "maverick" candidate who talked straight and had broad appeal. But then he was Karl ROVED and slimed big time for it, with dumb GOP primary voters believing that he voted "against" breast cancer research and listening to push-pollers on his "illigitimate black child". I lost a lot of respect for McCain for calculating that he would support Bush and tolerate the attacks on himself and his family, even going so far to kiss Bush’s ass REPEATEDLY throughout the past 7 years, all so he could be the "establishment" candidate in 2008.

No one thinks he is a maverick any more. Dems no longer respect him, and that spells trouble because the GOP faithful still claims he is "one of us", especially after he put the smack down on the nuclear option. I really hope he gets his teeth kicked in at the primary, but GOP faithful normally do their master’s bidding without question—and it has been decreed that it’s John’s "turn".

Although he has been the only candidate to be consistently right-wing on his conservative social views, the religious right just doesn’t like him. This was solidified in 2000 when he railed against these nuts when W spoke at Bob Jones U. Robertson told George Stephanopolis that he would not support McCain under "any circumstances", but Falwell has warmed up to him, even allowing him to speak at his own right-wing breeding ground (Liberty University) in Virginia.

The age issue will be a factor in the general election, but won’t matter that much to GOP primary voters. They would vote for the corpse of Ronald Reagan if it was still on the ticket.

He has the money, the smarts, and the keys to the Bush machine as the consolation prize for sucking up and playing ball with the Bushies. Hell, he even got the go ahead for access to the Ranger/Pioneer followers of Dear Leader. Game, Set, Match. Prove me wrong, folks!

Rudy Guiliani: DICE? If not McCain, he's the man. I used to think he had a shot, but now I think he won’t win. The right will simply not tolerate a pro-choice Repbulican to be their candidate. Falwell stated that he would not speak ill of Guiliani, but won’t support him because of his pro-choice, pro-gay views. Guiliani is trying to pander by promising judges who would overturn Roe, but as I said before, the right doesn’t buy it and it just frightens the moderates.

But he thought that his 9/11 performance, (which got a free pass in the press at that time because we were lookin for heroes), would be enough to get traction to carry him past the wackos and make the grade at the primary. People DO want strong leadership, the problem is that its not Guiliani. The letter by the NYC firefighters released last week put the smack down on his performance, and if he did make it past the primary, he would be swiftboated so bad it would have to be renamed. The commercials would feature 1st responsders would going on right after another telling the real story. Once the 9/11 halo is crushed, all you have left is a racially-insensivtive, nasty, ill-tempered, two-timing power-hungry bully.

Brownback: Too poor, too much like Bush, couldn’t win the general election if only Nader was on the ticket (Nader will run again, by the way). The faithful would love to have him, but they know (or should know ) they will never get another right-wing wacko in the White House. At least Bush posed as a moderate in 2000—and he didn’t even win the election. America will have suffered 8 long years of hell by 2008—the last thing they want is a Bush clone.

Huckabee: Same deal. Fawned all over how great Bush was not so long ago until even the dittoheads had to finally admit that Bush was clueless. All people know about him is that he lost a lot of weight, but not in his head. He will win Arkansas on Feb. 5, but that’ll be it.

Hunter, Tancredo: Fringe candidates so far down its not even funny or worth my time.

Jeb Bush: Won’t run, but I added him because he is the only one who could jump in late and make up the difference. Still popular in my home swing state of Florida, and the Dems gave him a free pass which allowed his star to rise (Message to my fellow FL Dems—you are doing the same damn thing with Crist—Knock it OFF!) Luckily, he is unpopular out of state--only being known as the Schiavo huckster, or unknown except for the Bush name—and since the Bush presidents have gotten consistently worse, I don’t think he’ll have a shot if he did run. He would be a good candidate for Veep for either Rudy or Romney—McCain wouldn’t pick him.

Gingrich: As if. Had an affair while lecturing Clinton. How hypocritical can this hideous man-whore get?

There you have it folks—I say McCain. When I’m right, I will post an entry next year and say Nyah, Nyah, Nyah. (Unless I’m wrong, in which this will be deleted and I never would have said anything).

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