Saturday, March 15, 2008

No Way to Avoid Brokered Convention: By the Numbers

Here are the options:
  • Do not seat Florida or Michigan
  • Seat them based on the elections that have taken place. Don't assume Obama gets the 55 Michigan uncommitted delegates.
  • Seat them based on the elections that have taken place. Give Obama the 55 Michigan uncommitted delegates.
  • Split the Florida and Michigan pledged delegations 50/50. Superdelegates are free to vote as they wish.
  • Split Michigan 50/50 including supers. Give Florida pledged delegates 1/2 vote, but based on January election. 1/2 vote for superdelegates also. This is supposedly under significant discussion.
  • Florida and Michigan hold new elections.

The guys at 2008 Democratic Convention Watch blog ran the delegate numbers for every option proposed. Check it out.

Bottom line: Unless one of the nominees drops out before the Denver convention, it is going to be months of hitting back and forth until the floor vote in August.

Just like us Democrats. Take an election that should be a shoo-in and manage to screw it all up. Why do we love to shoot ourselves in the foot? The only saving grace is that the GOP is sooooooooo corrupt and soooooooooooo incompetent and soooooooo bankrupt (morally and fiscally) that that alone may save our butts from the fire. Maybe.

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