I was more certain, until recently, who the veep would be than the presidential nominee for the Republicans. I always knew it would be either McCain or 9ui11iani, but either way I predicted last December that the veep would have to be HUCKABEE. Both men needed a likable but solid conservative on the ticket, the reasoning went. After Iowa, it seemed like a sure bet. McCain/Huckabee.
But I was wrong.
From what we KNOW about Huck, the GOP establishment hates him. In previous blogs I ranted how it would be impossible for Huckabee to get the nomination. The GOP establishment's agenda is to reduce taxes for the wealthy and big business. It was never really about social issues. The establishment doesn't really care about abortion, homosexuals, and the right-wing evangelicals silly crusades--they are to be whipped into a frenzy and vote, then go home. Period. Huckabee actually believed this crap and actually believed that he would be supported even though he was fine with raising taxes on the wealthy in his state to balance the budget.
Poor Huck. He learned otherwise when he was viciously attacked by establishment conservatives and their front groups (like Club for Growth). Huckabee is staying in for one reason--to force McCain to accept him as veep. He is making the plea that social conservatives rally behind him and McCain desperately needs him.
My original prediction that Huckabee would be veep runs contrary to the fact that he is wholly rejected by the GOP establishment. If McCain were to win, and Huck would be veep, then the GOP would have to get behind him next presidential election. This would be unacceptable.
Besides, the longer he stays in, the more irritable he is making everyone on the right (except the right-wing loons). Huckabee will never again be able to run, unlike Willard Mitt Romney.
(Bonus prediction: Romney calculated that he could be the establishment candidate next time. Let me break it down. Dole proved himself in 1988 by being a force against Bush 1--when his goose was cooked, he endorsed and strongly supported Bush 1--hence, it was his turn. McCain did the exact same thing with Bush 2 in 2000--and now it's his turn. Romney wants to be the establishment candidate after a supposed McCain win--so I knew he would swallow hard and endorse McCain. Given age, McCain might just run one term. Romney wants to be next in line for 2012 or 2016. You wait.)
Back on track---Then I got to thinking, why the hell does McCain need to suck up to the base after all? McCain has snubbed them repeatedly, and those bozos are so weak that they are unable to stop his rise to win the nomination--even in closed primaries. Even massive evangelical turnout in my former home state of VA couldn't stop the McCain Train. Picking another old man like Fred Thompson or another Rush-hated man like Huckabee is not going to bring the social conservatives over. Even if he can get some to accept him, they aren't going to be throwing money at him and work their tails off going door-to-door like they did for their cult leader, George W. Bush. (As one nutjob told me, "Once again, GOD is speaking through a Bush"! Idiot.)
McCain owes them nothing, he doesn't like them, they aren't going to like him, and it looks like they aren't going to be a factor in this election.
McCain will go with his gut. Someone he likes. Someone he trusts.
Who will it be?
Tim Pawlenty of MN?
Kay Bailey Hutchinson of TX?
Joe Lieberman of Turncoatland?
John Thune of SD?
Bobby Jindal of LA?
Our own Charlie Crist?
Some moron we've never heard of?
Nope. I think it will be Rudy Ghouliani.
Think about it. To some in the establishment, this is a "dream ticket". The right-wing conservatives who hate McCain aren't going to vote for him anyway, but the thinking is that this could bring in more independents and swing Democrats. Furthermore, both of these guys are close. Rudy said that he would support McCain if he wasn't running in a debate last year, and McCain never attacked Rudy. In fact, I would be willing to bet that Rudy and McCain discussed this after Rudy lost Florida. (What did Rudy have to gain be dropping out one week before his home state and other big states before Super Tuesday?)
My prediction is this will be a McCain/Guiliani ticket. Wrong? We'll see.
One more prediction: After Wisconsin, Obama will have won 8 primaries in a row. Momentum is the name of the game. Rudy had a big lead in Florida, and all of the other major states, and all of the other swing states. He lost the first 6 primaries/cauci and then POOF!* Gone. HRC leads slightly in TX, PA, and OH, but she lost her big leads. After Wisconsin, I think Obama will win TX and OH. It's hard to stop momentum.
If I am wrong here, then this race will go to a brokered convention. If that happens, HRC will win. This is why she won't drop out. Most of the superdelegates have ties to the former Clinton administration and will pledge to support her as long as she either won the state, the relevant congressional district, or has the lead in delegates.
A brokered convention will tear up the party, and leave us with 8 weeks to put it back together a fight McCain. Bad news all around. This is why, once again, I am currently supporting Obama (from Obama to Clinton and back again).
If we go to a brokered convention, we will lose. This is not a prediction, it is reality. And if we lose the election in 2008, the only prediction I PROMISE will happen is that McCain will entrench us in Iraq for his promised 100 years, we will lose two more seats to the Supreme Court, and America will suffer unbearably with the extension of Bush's third term.