I'm Voting Repbulican

This really spells it out...

Must Win States for McCain

I take off my partisan hat every now and again and do my own prognostication...

I have consistently looked at polls from a variety of reputable pollsters and featured on a myriad of conservative, liberal, and neutral websites.

I don't believe in using all those different shades of blue and red--they are confusing and unhelpful. There are VERY few states in this election that are super solid one way or the other. Yes, you could argue that Mississipi is a solid red state, but if 90% of their African-American population votes and votes for Obama--then Obama would only need a little over 25% of the "white" vote. Alaska is another "solid" red that just had a poll from Rasmussen showing Obama a lousy 4 points behind.

On the flip side, deep blue Massachussettes' latest poll shows Obama only 3 points ahead. Texas is less "solid" than Oklahoma because OK has consistently polled for McCain since he won the nomination, whereas TX flirted with Obama back in March--yet now seems to have returned to its red roots.

In other words, some states are more solid than others. NC, Oregon, even Georgia, may be more competitive this year, but in the end barring an unexpected event (and those do happen) they will move to their proper columns.

The true swing states I have below in gray:



(Note Nebraska is purple--I think Obama has a real shot at winning a portion of their split EVs in the district with Omaha)

Right now, factors favor Obama. Not just the popular vote and EVs, but right now, Obama is leading in all of these swing states except for Nevada. The good news for McCain is that Obama is leading in all of these swing states by under 5%. (I didn't say great news.) But McCain doesn't need to win ALL of them, just the right amount to win the magic 270. If I were a McCainiac, these would be the states I would tell him to go after:

Starting with 187 pretty assured EVs:

1. Florida. Florida, like the rest of the nation, has been trending Democratic in the national polls. But this is still a red state with a red governor and overwhelming GOP state legislature. The GOP has built quite an apparatus here--(believe me, I know!). It would make sense for McCain to take advantage of it. But this state is also a must-win for McCain. It is the largest swing state with 27 electoral votes. He would have to win Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota just to make up a defeat here. Out of the big 3 (Ohio, PA, and FL), Florida is his best shot. up to 214

2. Ohio. No modern republican has won without Ohio. Like Florida, Ohio shows a blue lead for Obama. But the good news is that if any GOPer would win Ohio in this Dem year, it would be McCain or no one. He has got to spend a lot of RNC money here and a lot more time to get his lead back. But this is also a must-win. up to 234

3. Virginia. This state hasn't voted GOP since before I was born--Lyndon Johnson was the last one. But this year it is trending Dem. McCain should try to hold on to this state one more time using the typical conservative playbook in the Southwest and the moderate "maverick" playbook in the Northeast. PS--If Obama picks Webb or Kaine as veep, then McCain should spend his resources elsewhere. up to 247

4. Michigan. Out of the mid-west states, this one is the best shot for McCain with the exception of Missouri. Wisconsin has moved solidly to Obama. Iowa has consistently been with Obama over 5%, as has Minnesota (although the convention here may give it a short-lived crimson boost.) Although Michigan is currently trending Obama, it is under 5% and until recently favored McCain. Michigan also has the most electoral-votes as the other states mentioned here--17. He has got to fight here and fight hard. Since Ohio is just below, he should get a lot of mileage with his bus fleet between these two states. up to 264

5. Nevada. The only swing state that currently has McCain leading. McCain is favored to win here, although his lead has been shrinking steadily. But the other swing states have been trending Obama, so his best bet is to focus his attention on retaining this Bush state. up to 269

Where to get the remaining EV? Nebraska. Make sure Obama doesn't split NE, and that's it.

I would much rather be in Obama's shoes, but the task is not insurmountable.

Next week--Obama!

Learn to USE Veep-Hungry Crist

I wrote to the Sentinel after they had a legnthy editorial bashing him for changing positions on oil-drilling the SAME DAY McCain did.

I recommended to the editor there that they simply make a list of everything they are crowing about (red-light cameras, car boot laws, light rail, etc.), and ask McCain to list a few of those next time they interview him. I promise you'll see Governor Sock Puppet swing into action.

YOU ARE WELCOME!

GAMETIME: Try to find McCain at GOP.org

Go on -- try to find him: www.gop.org

He's nowhere.

Of course, Barack Obama is EVERYWHERE. No less than 7 pictures on the front page alone. Every story is on Obama, every headline is Obama, there is countdown clocks on Obama, there is "meet Barack Obama"--my God, it's like someone stumbled on the Democratic site.

Now compare:
www.democrats.org

Notice a difference?

Not really. Everywhere there is Obama! Not nearly as many pictures and articles, but he's there!

Maybe that's because we are genuinely PROUD of our candidate. Maybe because our candidate has something to talk about and share--

Not just Fears and Smears, which seem to be the GOP's ENTIRE platform.


What does McCain stand for? Good luck finding that on GOP.org. There is one small icon on "climate change". Everything is Obama this and Obama that. You won't even be able to see what a John McCain looks like--but maybe that's intentional:

The McCain camp doesn't even feature McCain in their sad promotional videos. My diary yesterday featured the "exclusive tour" of his Straight Talk Express ala "Cribs" -- Click here if you can stomach it. As always, no McSame.

I really feel for the GOP. Really I do. I can't blame them for not featuring McCain. He's just not that popular. You can't feature the president, or the vice president either. (that would be suicide!)

Who can you feature? The only one in politics who is popular I suppose.

Barack Obama!!

Obama's first ad

Well done...

McCain's "edgy" Bus Tour Video--very funny!!

Somehow or another I got on johnmccain's email list. As a regular visitor to this site, it is very interesting to see how they spin their recent string of disasters.

The latest email made me smile--and I thought you would enjoy it. It's called "McCain Cribs: Straight Talk Express". The video is shot similar to how MTV shoots their popular series "Cribs"--and it gives you an inside look at the STE. The email promises you can even get a look inside the refrigerator!! (It's soda-"No booze this time!"). Party animals.

If EVER there was a more pathetic attempt to make McCain hot, fly, and edgy ("Take that Hollywood!"), this is it. I warned you:

Here's the video:

http://www.johnmccain.com/STETour/


It's 4 1/2 minutes long--but at least watch the first few seconds to see that wicked MTV-style intro. It goes downhill from there. I'll give you the brief:

Cool man "Davis White - Director of Advance" pops out of the bus to give you the "exclusive tour". You get to hear all about the engine and baggage area with cool fast-forwarding camera effects.


White is happy to show diversity on the bus--their bus driver is a black man! He is "like family".

White says they like to be "rollin' in style" with

"8 inch tires sittin' on 22 inch rims--TAKE THAT HOLLYWOOD!!"

(gag)

They go overboard about all the technology (see, McCain gets it!!). Damn, someone "left their blackberry here" sitting out on the table--how convenient.

There is a shower on the bus--but no one has used it yet. But it's "ready and willing" (creepy)

We get to see where Senator McCain sits. Davis "don't want to disrepect it" by sitting there. (I could actually envision Mccain flying off the handle)

It ends with Davis throwing you off the bus, ala "Cribs",

You're gonna have to get off--seriously, you're gonna have to go before I call Secret Service!

Cue music.

What the hell were they thinking? THIS is what they are going to use to lure people from the Obama camp? Barack must be quaking. The sad thing is I can see the media consultant who dreamed this up to "reach out" saying "YES--Nailed it!"

Words on Oil to Forward to Every Congressman and Senator

I hate Neil Cavuto. But I hate more that I agree with him. He is responsible for the below tirade:

1. Stop the political grandstanding. And this goes for Democrats and Republicans. You're both to blame. Now, both do something.

2. Democrats, stop this nonsense about not looking for more oil here. We have it here. Let's drill for it here. It hardly means we're going to destroy every tree, spotted owl, and polar bear while we're doing it here.

3. Republicans, stop protecting energy companies with billions in subsidies they don't need and tax credits they don't deserve. It's one thing to say don't tax their profits, but don't tax my patience. They're doing fine on their own.

4. Democrats, quit picking and choosing what energy alternative you want. Pick them all, explore them all — solar, wind, nuclear, and yes oil. Jump ball. Have at it.

5. Republicans, stop resisting conservation. You look clueless and frankly, stupid, opposing simple step solutions to saving energy. Because here's a news flash: we need to save energy.

6. And this is for Democrats and Republicans. We know you each blame each other...one for not exploring for oil, the other for not exploring options to oil. Get over it, get on with it, explore for it, all of it, all here, all now.

Demagoguing the issue won't solve the issue. Working together just might. I want to see you doing so now. There's hell to pay on this show if you do not.

You have been warned.

Being a Democrat means thinking for yourself, and for me that means sometimes taking the best ideas from BOTH parties for a comprehensive solution. We have a real energy crisis. The GOP wants to drill for oil we already have here, and the Democrats want to conserve and seek alternative energy sources.

Why the hell can't we do BOTH?

The outrage here in Florida was drilling MILES off the coast for oil. I don't get this. There hasn't been an oil spill even after drilling stations were damaged with massive hurricanes. We have no trouble allowing huge antiquated tanker ships to come to our ports--which is much more likely to spill. And the drilling will be so far off shore you will not be able to see them without a telescope.

No, we can't dig our way out--but it makes sense for us to be as self-sufficient as possible. And we can allow the oil companies to drill here in return for generous subsidies to our state. It's WIN-WIN.

In addition to drilling here, we should also be putting wind turbines out to sea. We should be leading the nation in solar, wind, and tide energy.

WE should be doing everything we can to solve this energy crisis, which is only going to get worse.

Bill McCollum: "McCain is Out of Touch"

If you a Democrat in Florida, you need to make sure this video gets seen. McCain already had a lot to answer for in last week's visit concerning his opposition to Everglades restoration, but that is nothing compared to his dismal record on helping hurricane victims. He even bragged about disregarding Floridians who needed help after the devastating hurricanes:



Kudos to the Florida Democratic Party for putting this video together.


Not only does McCain oppose the bill for national disaster insurance, he does not understand it. From the Palm Beach Post:

He continues to insist that the bill, which would help to pay insurance claims from catastrophic hurricanes, tornadoes or earthquakes, would cost the government $200 billion. He has said that the Federal Emergency Management Agency could handle the problem.

In fact, states would have to qualify for the program by first setting up their own insurance pools, as Florida has done. If those resources aren't enough, states would go to the national program, which would issue private-market bonds backed by the government. The idea is to avoid the sort of bailout that happened after Hurricane Katrina. Having the plan would allow private insurers to base rates only on bad years, not catastrophic years. That would set limits on prospective claims, and rates would fall.

FEMA can't even find victims in a giant SuperDome or figure out housing for victims years later. It is appalling that our perpetually tanned governor, who is BEGGING for the veep slot, hasn't bothered to explain the plan, which he supports, to his potential new boss. As our right-wing attorney general, Bill McCollum, said, "McCain is out of touch".

If you are a Dem blogger, at the end of it--copy the embed code and put it on your blog or even email it. Floridians need to know how wrong McCain is for Florida.

McCain will OVERTURN Roe; Bad Record for Women

I just read a poll where people still think somehow that McCain is pro-choice. For God's sakes people, read something!!

McCain on Meet the Press:

I have stated time after time after time that Roe v Wade was a bad decision, that I support a woman — the rights of the unborn — that I have fought for human rights and human dignity throughout my entire political career," McCain said. "To me, it's an issue of human rights and human dignity.

His voting record is solid against family planning, teen pregnancy prevention programs, and even against the Freedom of Access to Clinic Entrances Act that simply forbade the use of force or threat of force to interfere with clinic access!!

He voted to codify a controversial regualtion that allowed states to make an embryo or fetus (but NOT THE PREGNANT WOMAN) eligible for health-care coverage.

Voted to deny low-income women access to abortion using Medicaid funds in any case.

He will appoint women-hating radicals like Alito, as he told the National Review

Let me just look you in the eye," McCain told me. "I've said a thousand times on this campaign trail, I've said as often as I can, that I want to find clones of Alito and Roberts. I worked as hard as anybody to get them confirmed. I look you in the eye and tell you I've said a thousand times that I wanted Alito and Roberts. I have told anybody who will listen. I flat-out tell you I will have people as close to Roberts and Alito [as possible], and I am proud of my record of working to get them confirmed, and people who worked to get them confirmed will tell you how hard I worked.

If you love pro-life radicals, then vote for McCain. But please don't vote for him and tell me he is really some sort of "moderate" on this issue!

Our Votes DO Count, Why Not Do This From the Beginning??

Big Surprise.

Florida's Votes Count. The little committee that normally gets unnoticed had the spotlight on them yesterday. They allotted proportionally, with the delegates getting a half a vote each.

Essentially, it's the same arrangement that the RNC made -- they took HALF the delegates from the beginning. We will count all but give them a HALF a vote each. In other words, no difference.

Soooooooooooooooo...

WHY THE HELL DIDN'T THEY DO THIS FROM THE BEGINNING?

Why did we have to endure literally MONTHS of Florida and Michigan bashing; and allow months of ads and op-eds that said Democrats don't count votes. The GOP got a free pass on this, and now Obama is having to play catch-up in two crucial swing states because of the antics of the DNC.

I still think we will win despite ourselves, but let's say we quit shooting ourselves in the foot from now on. K?