Sunday, September 02, 2012

Polls are in: NO CONVENTION BOUNCE! (w/ funny GOP reaction)

Crossposted as a Recommended diary on DailyKos.

Couldn't have happened to a more awful person:

A modest bump in popularity for U.S. presidential hopeful Mitt Romney from this week's Republican Party convention looks to be short-lived, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Democratic President Barack Obama regained a narrow lead on Saturday by 44 percent to 43 percent over his Republican challenger, former Massachusetts Governor Romney, in the latest daily installment of the four-day rolling poll....

"This wasn't a lightning bolt convention," Ipsos pollster Julia Clark said. "Comparatively speaking, this was a more muted convention in general ... So it doesn't surprise me that (the bump in polls) wasn't a great deal bigger."

Gallup Poll showed no bounce at all.

Analysis on the Gallup Poll from Mr. Nate Silver:

The most sluggish of the tracking polls is from Gallup, which reports its results over a lengthy seven-day window. That means that only about half its interviews occurred after the start of the convention, and a smaller fraction than that will represent people surveyed after Mr. Romney’s acceptance address.

However, the trend so far in the Gallup poll is a bit disappointing for Mr. Romney; the survey still shows Mr. Obama one point ahead. By comparison, the Gallup poll has had a 46-46 tie on average over the past 60 days.

Here is what you need to take away from this.


After a disastrous summer, August was to be the month of Mitt. First with his veep announcement, and then the convention. The convention has just ended.... which means we had an entire week of unfiltered Mitt Romney propoganda covered by the news media. The Dem convention hasn't started yet, so THIS LABOR WEEKEND should be Mitt at his absolute highest.

And he is still losing....

Hundreds of millions spent by a few billionaires, voter suppression, scare tactics, racism, and nonstop lies. Even with a sluggish economy, the American people know they don't want to go back to the trickle-down, Romney-Hood policies of what made this economy sluggish in the first place.

People do not like or trust Mitt.

He made his extreme fortune forcing companies to take on extreme debt, and having OTHERS try to pay it off... but only after he and his vulture buddies got paid their management "fees". Sort of like his economic plan.... increase the deficit and have the middle class pay a lot more so he and his buddies can pay A LOT less.

And THIS is the man the GOP picked. The man to "solve" our deficit?

What makes this very sweet for me is the fact that conservatives are in extreme denial. Several, like this clown and this one, are not only projecting a RMoney win, but a BIG RMONEY LANDSLIDE! They saw something at the convention no one else saw (like an invisible Obama), but also are bolstered by this University of Colorado "analysis":

A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.

The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.

“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.

Using ONLY historical data is a problem, professors. Mitt hasn't led in the electoral college at ANY point in this election. Even McCain led Obama ONE WEEk after the GOP convention. No historical data will match the suck factor that is Romney. Historically, there was never such a disparity in likability, trust and competence.

BUt please, PLEASE, keep believing in your alternate reality fantasy that somehow Mitt will sweep all the states. That would be keeping within your beliefs that the president is an alien, Kenyan, Socialist, Aethist-Muslim who owns a time machine to plant fake birth announcements. Your strong beliefs in the face of facts are what gives snake oil salesmen like Rove the ability to piss billionaire's money down the drain.

Thank you.

One last thing, professors. If you want historical data, I have a better one. The worst pundit in America, the troll who is Dick Morris, (who recently said that Akin was a boon for RMoney), and has made every wrong prediction for every election......(wait for it).... just predicted a landslide for Romney.

Now that's data you can use.

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