Friday, September 07, 2012

Romney to "CARPETBOMB" Obama with $100M in Ads Starting Sat.; but why U should feel good

Crossposted as recommended diary on DKos

First the bad news:

Our gleeful friends at RedState and Fox:
Aides said more than a dozen new ads, each tailored to different regions and segments of the electorate, will begin airing Friday, aimed at dramatically shifting the dynamics of a contest that Romney-Ryan aides acknowledge, in terms of the hard realities of the electoral map, have until now favored the Obama-Biden ticket.

"Time is short," said one campaign aide. "We have $100 million we've just raised. If you look at our burn rate to date and our cash on hand, there's not much more we can spend on infrastructure. So we've got to start spending our general election funds in a big way, because you know what the value of that money is on the day after the election? Zero."

Yes, Romney is getting 9-figure donations (no, that is not a typo). He is going to saturate the TV, radio, websites, etc., with expensively researched ads hitting Obama hard. It is nothing to sneeze at. Whereas Obama gets most of his money from small donors, Romney has almost all of his coming from 32 billionaires donating to his campaign and the myriad of SuperPACs.

BUT now the good news:

Sure, I think it will have an effect, but I'm not worried. Here's why.

1. Money means less in a presidential race than other races. People know who Barack Obama is; and by now they know who Mitt Romney is. (My God, they've had how many "re-introductions" of this guy? If they don't like him now, they aren't going to.) The media coverage of the presidential race is unrelenting and saturating. It leads every news story... and Obama seems to know how to set a narrative a lot better than his opponent.

2. There isn't that many swing voters. The margin is a percentage point or so in the swing states. Most people have already made up their minds and according to the polls, aren't likely to change them. Romney will be spending a few thousand on each swing voter to try to swing them back to his camp. But what is going to swing the election isn't the handful of undecideds who decide to vote, it's the get out the vote operation of each camp's base. This is where Obama has the advantage. Besides, undecideds are like everyone else, they ask their friends and colleagues their opinion. This carries a LOT more weight than an ad. (I am always happy to dispel any misinformation by friends on facebook... and the lies they tell are easily disputed.)

3. Their ads have really, really sucked so far. They run welfare ads featuring Clinton (which is telling--Romney NEVER mentions W. But I digress.). The ads are lies, which becomes the story. Then they have to defend them in interviews and come across as liars. (Wait till the debates.) The Crossroads Ads that Karl has spend tens of millions of dollars on so far have all flopped. Even Erick Erickson thinks they suck:

In the meantime, the GOP Super PAC ads continue to be mostly forgettable while the Super PAC’s themselves continue to raid the pockets of GOP multi-millionaires.

So they love to run ads (countering the claims made by GOP guvs) that the economy is in ruins. Yes, that's the narrative, but they never NEVER NEVER mention what they will do differently from Bush, which is why they aren't trusted.

4. Their candidate sucks. Romney. He is really bad. You can spend 10 million propping him up and all it takes is for him to say "I like to fire people", "My wife owns a couple of Cadillacs", or make a 10,000 bet, or go to London, or talk about his wealthy friends, try to joke about layoffs or peasant raincoats and cookies... the list goes on and on... He has made more gaffes in one year than Obama has his entire career. He relates to people as a man who has lived in sheltered priveledge his entire life, and that awkwardness cannot be media-handled. ALSO, the GOP itself sux. You can't hate immigrants, Muslims, gays, brown people, women, etc. and think that a few ads will change that. Todd Akin told the truth about the GOP/Paul Ryan platform, and millions of women became Democrats. Millions and millions of dollars spent reaching out to women... undone in one interview.

5. There are fewer swing states. There are 8-9 swing states: NV, OH, FL, IA, CO, VA, NH and NC. MI and PA are written off Dem. MO is written off red. WI has been pretty solid blue but you can throw that on for #9. THere are only SO MANY ads you can buy. Now if there were 30+ swing states, Romney would defintely have the advantage. But there are only 8-9 this round. Obama can afford to compete in a handful of states. Here's an analogy... let's say you are selling 10 slices of pizza. Obama can only afford 5 slices, and you can afford 100 slices. But there are ONLY 10 slices! Obama will be outspent in the swing states, but he will be able to hit back. Even if its 1-3 ratio or 1-5, it should be enough. (Romney is still not running ads in Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin, BTW.)

Still need your help:

If someone brings up politics, or if you are on Social Media, don't be afraid to engage. My friend was appalled by Todd Akin, but loved Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney. I had to let her know that it was Paul Ryan who tried to alter the language in the House by inserting the word "forcible"; and supports rapists getting visitation rights. That is the man he is. She is no longer a Romney supporter, and no ad is going to change that.

Historically, the candidate who projects optimism wins the election. After the convention of doom and gloom; America was treated to a convention that lifted spirits and fired up the base. I am hoping those of you inspired will devote a small bit of time, even one lousy weekend, to either canvass or get out the vote. (PS, here in Florida we need pollwatchers. contact your local dem party.) A small effort by you is worth more than a 2 million dollar ad on the TV.

The billionaires have the money, but we have the truth and the passion. So let's make it happen. An Obama victory will be SOOOOOOOO SWEET when the billionaires realize Nov. 7 that Karl Rove pissed away all that money.

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